Analysis of Arb Cruncher's betting calculations

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Analysis of Arb Cruncher's stake calculations

This page shows breakdowns of all the stake calculations performed by Arb Cruncher. As well as demonstrating the accuracy of Arb Cruncher and showing you how the final Profit figure is reached in Arb Cruncher, these potted breakdowns are also intended to provide a clear and concise overview of each of the popular betting techniques that Arb Cruncher can be applied to.

Arb Cruncher does not currently perform calculations for online poker. We are planning to launch a new online poker calculator in the coming months, but until then are happy to recommend the excellent free online poker calculator provided by Texas Calculatem.

Please note that, in the examples shown below, * indicates that commission has been deducted from net profit. If all bets are placed on the same betting exchange, commission is deducted from the net market profit, as opposed to the profit of the winning selection.

Book arbitrage
Back all selections for a guaranteed profit when book is less than 100%.

Bets	Stake @ Price	Betting Site	A wins	B wins	C wins
Back A	£100.00 @ 2.25	Bookmaker	+£125.00*	-£100.00*	-£100.00*
Back B	£69.23 @ 3.25	Bookmaker	-£69.23*	+£155.77*	+£69.23*
Back C	£45.00 @ 5.00	Bookmaker	-£45.00*	+£45.00*	+£180.00*
Net Profit			+£10.77*	+£10.77*	+£10.77*

View Arb Cruncher screenshot of this calculation

Back/Lay arbitrage
Back and lay the same selection on different betting sites for a guaranteed profit.

Bets	Stake @ Price	Betting Site	A wins	A doesn't win
Back A	£500.00 @ 2.50	Betfair (5%)	+£712.50*	-£500.00*
Lay A	£534.14 @ 2.30	Betdaq (3%)	-£694.38*	+£518.22*
Net Profit			+£18.12*	+£18.12*

View Arb Cruncher screenshot of this calculation

Greening up after a price rise
Lay first and back later at a higher price to lock in a level profit.

Bets	Stake @ Price	Betting Site	A wins	A doesn't win
Lay A	£1,000.00 @ 1.10	Betfair (5%)	-£100.00*	+£1,000.00*
Back A	£956.52 @ 1.15	Betfair (5%)	+£143.48*	-£956.52*
Net Profit			+£41.31*	+£41.31*

View Arb Cruncher screenshot of this calculation

Greening up after a price fall
Back first and lay later at a lower price to lock in a level profit.

Bets	Stake @ Price	Betting Site	A wins	A doesn't win
Back A	£100.00 @ 5.00	Betfair (5%)	+£400.00*	-£100.00*
Lay A	£125.00 @ 4.00	Betfair (5%)	-£375.00*	+£125.00*
Net Profit			+£23.75*	+£23.75*

View Arb Cruncher screenshot of this calculation

Dutching
Back multiple (not all) selections for a level profit if one of them wins.

Bets	Stake @ Price	Betting Site	A wins	B wins	C wins
Back A	£100.00 @ 4.00	Betfair (5%)	+£300.00*	-£100.00*	-£100.00*
Back B	£80.00 @ 5.00	Betfair (5%)	-£80.00*	+£320.00*	-£80.00*
Net Profit			+£209.00*	+£209.00*	-£180.00*

View Arb Cruncher screenshot of this calculation

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Book arbitrage
Back all selections for a guaranteed profit when book is less than 100%.

Bets	Stake @ Price	Betting Site	A wins	B wins	C wins
Back A	£100.00 @ 2.25	Bookmaker	+£125.00*	-£100.00*	-£100.00*
Back B	£69.23 @ 3.25	Bookmaker	-£69.23*	+£155.77*	+£69.23*
Back C	£45.00 @ 5.00	Bookmaker	-£45.00*	+£45.00*	+£180.00*
Net Profit			+£10.77*	+£10.77*	+£10.77*

View screenshot of this calculation | Open the Multiback calculator

Back/Lay arbitrage
Back and lay the same selection on different betting sites for a guaranteed profit.

Bets	Stake @ Price	Betting Site	A wins	A doesn't win
Back A	£500.00 @ 2.50	Betfair (5%)	+£712.50*	-£500.00*
Lay A	£534.14 @ 2.30	Betdaq (3%)	-£694.38*	+£518.22*
Net Profit			+£18.12*	+£18.12*

View screenshot of this calculation | Open the Back/Lay calculator

Greening up after a price rise
Lay first and back later at a higher price to lock in a level profit.

Bets	Stake @ Price	Betting Site	A wins	A doesn't win
Lay A	£1,000.00 @ 1.10	Betfair (5%)	-£100.00*	+£1,000.00*
Back A	£956.52 @ 1.15	Betfair (5%)	+£143.48*	-£956.52*
Net Profit			+£41.31*	+£41.31*

View screenshot of this calculation | Open the Back/Lay calculator

Greening up after a price fall
Back first and lay later at a lower price to lock in a level profit.

Bets	Stake @ Price	Betting Site	A wins	A doesn't win
Back A	£100.00 @ 5.00	Betfair (5%)	+£400.00*	-£100.00*
Lay A	£125.00 @ 4.00	Betfair (5%)	-£375.00*	+£125.00*
Net Profit			+£23.75*	+£23.75*

View screenshot of this calculation | Open the Back/Lay calculator

Dutching
Back multiple (not all) selections for a level profit if one of them wins.

Bets	Stake @ Price	Betting Site	A wins	B wins	C wins
Back A	£100.00 @ 4.00	Betfair (5%)	+£300.00*	-£100.00*	-£100.00*
Back B	£80.00 @ 5.00	Betfair (5%)	-£80.00*	+£320.00*	-£80.00*
Net Profit			+£209.00*	+£209.00*	-£180.00*

View screenshot of this calculation | Open the Multiback calculator

Laying a book
Lay all selections for a guaranteed profit, if book is over 100%.

Bets	Stake @ Price	Betting Site	A wins	B wins	C wins	D wins
Lay A	£5,000.00 @ 1.80	Betfair (5%)	-£4,000.00*	+£5,000.00*	+£5,000.00*	+£5,000.00
Lay B	£1,800.00 @ 5.00	Betfair (5%)	+£1,800.00*	-£7,200.00*	+£1,800.00*	+£1,800.00*
Lay C	£1,500.00 @ 6.00	Betfair (5%)	+£1,500.00*	+£1,500.00*	-£7,500.00*	+£1,500.00*
Lay D	£1,285.71 @ 7.00	Betfair (5%)	-£1,285.71*	-£1,285.71*	-£1,285.71*	-£7,714.26*
Net Profit			+£556.42*	+£556.42*	+£556.42*	+£556.45*

View screenshot of this calculation | Open the Multilay calculator

Lay dutching
Lay multiple (not all) selections for a level profit if none wins and a level loss if one of them were to win.

Bets	Stake @ Price	Betting Site	A wins	B wins	C wins	D wins
Lay A	£372.84 @ 1.82	Betfair (5%)	-£305.73*	+£372.84*	+£372.84*	+£372.84*
Lay B	£178.57 @ 3.80	Betfair (5%)	+£178.57*	-£500.00*	+£178.57*	+£178.57*
Net Profit			-£127.16*	-£127.16*	+£523.84*	+£523.84*

View screenshot of this calculation | Open the Multilay calculator

Dutching each way on the win
Back multiple selections each way for a level profit if one of them wins.

Bets	Stake @ Price	Bet type	A wins	A placed	B wins	B placed
Back A each way	£200.00 @ 17.00 (= £200.00 x 2)	Win bet	+£3,200.00*	-£200.00*	-£200.00*	-£200.00*
Back A each way	£200.00 @ 17.00 (= £200.00 x 2)	Place bet	+£800.00*	+£800.00*	-£200.00*	-£200.00*
Back B each way	£137.50 @ 25.00 ( = £137.50 x 2)	Win bet	-£137.50*	-£137.50*	+£3,300.00*	-£137.50*
Back B each way	£137.50 @ 25.00 ( = £137.50 x 2)	Place bet	-£137.50*	-£137.50*	+£825.00*	+£825.00*
Net Profit			+£3,725.00*	+£325.00*	+£3,725.00*	+£287.50*

View screenshot of this calculation | Open the Dutch Each Way calculator

Dutching each way on the place
Back multiple selections each way for a level profit if one of them is placed.

Bets	Stake @ Price	Bet type	A wins	A placed	B wins	B placed
Back A each way	£200.00 @ 17.00 (= £200.00 x 2)	Win bet	+£3,200.00*	-£200.00*	-£200.00*	-£200.00*
Back A each way	£200.00 @ 17.00 (= £200.00 x 2)	Place bet	+£800.00*	+£800.00*	-£200.00*	-£200.00*
Back B each way	£142.86 @ 25.00 ( = £142.86 x 2)	Win bet	-£142.86*	-£142.86*	+£3,428.64*	-£142.86*
Back B each way	£142.86 @ 25.00 ( = £142.86 x 2)	Place bet	-£142.86*	-£142.86*	+£857.16*	+£857.16*
Net Profit			+£3,714.28*	+£314.28*	+£3,885.80*	+£314.30*

View screenshot of this calculation | Open the Dutch Each Way calculator

Hedging against the draw
Back both the win and the draw so that you profit from a win and break even with a draw.

Bets	Stake @ Price	Betting Site	A wins	Draw	B wins
Back A	£250.00 @ 2.25	Betfair (5%)	+£312.50*	-£250.00*	-£250.00*
Back Draw	£94.34 @ 3.65	Betfair (5%)	-£250.00*	+£250.00*	-£94.34*
Net Profit			+£207.25*	+£0.00*	-£344.34*

View screenshot of this calculation | Open the Draw No Bet calculator

Squaring a profitable position
Lay a selection so that its P&L moves from profitable to breakeven.

Bets	Stake @ Price	Betting Site	A's P&L	B's P&L	C's P&L
Position before bet		Betfair (5%)	+£180.00*	+£0.00*	-£100.00*
Lay A	£94.34 @ 3.65	Betfair (5%)
Position after bet		Betfair (5%)	+£0.00*	+£73.47*	-£26.53*

View screenshot of this calculation

Squaring a loss-making position
Back a selection so that its P&L moves from loss-making to breakeven.

Bets	Stake @ Price	Betting Site	A's P&L	B's P&L	C's P&L
Position before bet		Betfair (5%)	-£100.00*	+£250.00*	£0.00*
Back A	£75.19 @ 2.33	Betfair (5%)
Position after bet		Betfair (5%)	+£0.00*	-£174.81*	-£75.19*

View screenshot of this calculation